英文演講：IBM首席執(zhí)行官精彩演講（英漢對照）

　　英文演講：IBM首席執(zhí)行官精彩演講（英漢對照）

　
　　 
　　Good evening! It is a great honor for me to share this stage with the Lord Mayor, chief executive of Hannover, with Mr. Yang, and in a few minutes with Chancellor Kohl.

　　I have been looking forward to this evening for a long time, because I have known for many years how important CeBIT is to the global Information Technology industry. So before I go any further I want to thank you very much for inviting me to participate in this important forum.

　　Now I have given a lot of thought as to what I would say to you this evening. On the one hand, I am here as a representative of the Information Technology industry on the event that is bigger by orders of magnitude than any other technology exhibit. That is quite a statement in a industry that is good at many things, especially celebrating its own creations. On the other hand, like most of you, I have spent most of my professional life as a customer of this industry. So I know that after the splash and promises comes the harsh light of morning and often the customer is left standing alone wondering what happened, or as the head of one of our most important German customers put it, "Yours is an industry that is very good at weddings and not so good at marriages." So tonight, while I will talk about the power and potential of Information Technology, I hope the temper of my remarks with the perspective I had when I came to IBM five years ago, the perspective of a customer.

　　Now it is certainly easy to see why raw technology dominates these events. It is adoptive; it is breathtaking; and it is penetrating every aspect of our lives. Today there are more PCs sold annually in the world than TVs or cars. The typical luxury automobile today has 20 to 30 microprocessors in it, more computing power by far than was inside the landing-craft that took the first astronauts to the moon. Last year there were five times more E-mail messages sent than the number of pieces of paper mail delivered worldwide, 2.7 trillion E-mails. And I got more than my share. There is another way to look at what is going on. In the mid-1970s, the first super computers appeared. They were capable of about 100 million calculations per second. And they cost about one million dollars. Today the laptop computer that college students carry in their bags, packs, is twice as fast as that first super computer, and it costs less than 3000 dollars. The trend in data storage is even more impressive. In the early 80s, the standard unit of computer storage, one mega-byte, or one million bytes of information, cost about 100 dollars. Today, it is 10 cents. In two years, it will cost 2 cents. These gains are driven by continuous advances in how we pack information into smaller and smaller spaces. If the US Library of Congress could shrink its collections of 17 million books by the same factor we just discussed, it could replace 800 kilometers of shelf space with less than 40 meters of space. These advances are going to continue and accelerate the rate microprocessors, storage, communications, memory, and all the other engines that are propelling this industry or continue to lead to the products of the faster, smaller, and less expensive, just as they have for 30 years. But as we stand here today, the opening of CeBIT, we are on the threshold of a very important change and the evolution of this industry. In many ways, this industry, a very emitory industry, is about to play out in its most important dimension. That is because the technology has become so powerful and so pervasive that its future impact on people and governments and all institutions will dwarf what has happened today.

　　I believe there are two trends that are most significant here, and bare the closest watching.

　　The first is what we call deep computing. The term is inspired by our chess-playing super computer Deep Blue, which I believe many of you know competed with the Grand Master Gary Kasparov last year. Deep Blue is an amazing machine, capable of 200 million moves per second. But speed, while essential, is not enough. After all, Deep Blue's predecessor was quite fast, but it loss to Gary Kasparov two years ago. The difference in second time around was an infusion of knowledge, human chess knowledge, thousands and thousands of chess moves, games and outcomes, captured as mathematical algorithms. This is what led Deep Blue to mimic the workings of the human mind, and race through millions of possible chess positions and extract the best one. And it worked rather well. But Deep Blue is emblematic of a whole class of emerging computer systems that combine ultra-fast processing with sophisticated analytical software.

　　Today we are applying these systems to challenges that are far more vital than chess. Let me talk about two important application areas, starting with simulation.

　　Simulation is about replacing physical things with digital things, recreating reality inside these powerful computer systems. In the farmer suitacle industry, the ability to simulate the interaction of chemicals, and do it in the computer rather than in test-tubes and Petri dishes, can speed up by years the discovery and testing of new farmer suitacle. Mercedes, BMW, Fiat, Volvo, SAAM all design cars today on computers, no physical markups, no models. And aviation does so, pioneer many of these techniques, and Boeing broke new ground when it designed the 777 airplane entirely on computers. It was a very bold move, and even some of Boeing's engineers had trepidations. I had trepidations because three month after I joined IBM I went out to Boeing to see my good friend Frank SCHURZ , who was the CEO. And Frank said to me, "Since this new airplane was built on your computers, maybe you should go on the first flight." And I said, "It is my wife's birthday." And he said, "I did not even tell you the date yet. Coward!" Computer simulation saves time, saves money, and it gives customers a competitive advantage, and it can do more than that. Recently the US department of energy asked IBM to build a gigantic super computer to simulate nuclear weapons so that they will never have to be exploded for test purposes, ever again.

　　The second type of deep computing is what we call data mining -- some people call it business intelligence, the ability to extract inside from mountains of information, and see relationships and trends that previously were not available or invisible. Banks are looking at spending patterns and other demographic data to see which customers are more profitable over the long haul. Health-care companies are analyzing millions of patient records to find hidden indicators of disease. These tools are also helping slash the staggering cost of insurance fraud in the health-care industry, which is a hundred-billion-dollar problem in the United States alone. Insurance companies can now spot every billion practices. One company in the United States has saved 38 million dollars, having invested only 400 thousand in this technology. In one instance they found a doctor, who was sending it a bill once a week for a procedure that particular - usually was done once or twice in a life time. At some times the patterns and relationships that are uncovered are truly baffling. One retail chain discovered the following correlation -- for whatever reason, new fathers buy disposable baby diapers and beer on the same shopping trip. This led to many, many thoughtful ideas not at least which was they never discount diapers and beer on the same day.

　　So we believe that deep computing is a trend that will have a profound effect on commerce and on society. Of course a concept throwing big problems at computers is not a new idea. Its rules can be traced at the very origins of the industry. The difference today is that the systems are so much more powerful and so much more affordable that they can be used by businesses and governments and institutions of all sizes.

　　The second major development in Information Technology is of course for a topic, already discussed here this evening, and that is the rise of global networks, like the Internet to create a network world, or what some call a network economy. About 16 million people use the Internet today. And the estimates are that that number will grow to 500 million, and perhaps someday to a billion. Now what will these connected people going to do, or they want to do? Not too long ago, people in my industry thought that the action was going to be an information dissemination - news, weathers, sports scores, online magazines called E-zines, and short consumer information. IBM has had a different view for some time. We believe the real potential of the network world is for conducting transactions of all kinds, between parties of all kinds, an effect that seems to be what is happening. Consider that across Europe Internet sales of about one billion dollars last year are projected to reach 30 billion dollars by the year 2001. One study says that the worldwide Internet commerce activity will double, double in the next six month alone. And most of that is business to business transactions. We see the total market for Internet commerce hitting 200 billion dollars by the end of the century. And that is a conservative forecast. It is not just about buying and selling. About a year ago IBM coined the term E-business to describe all the ways that people will derive value from the Net. Transactions among employees within the business to prove how products are developed, how ideas are shared, how teams are formed, how work gets done. Transaction between a business and its suppliers, its distributors, its retailers, to increase cycle times, speed and efficiency. And the very important transactions and interactions between governments and citizens, educators and students, health-care providers and patients. It is a very exciting stuff. And the greatest changes and challenges are not in the technology. In fact, connecting to the Net is relatively easy. The big challenges are in the fundamental transformation of the way things get done in the world. That is because networks are great levelers. They dissolve barriers to entry the neutralized traditional assets like physical stores and branches. Networks dissolved the boundaries within and between companies, countries, continents and time-zones. It is not hyperbole to say that the network is quickly emerging as the largest, most dynamic, restless, sleepless marketplace of good services and ideas the world has ever seen. And naturally this comes with very profound applications. For one thing, they are all ready, time-honored processes that govern the way things work in the world, the way we buy and sell, the way we distribute things, the way we teach, and the way we interact with each other. That I will tell you that nearly every one of those conventions is being challenged by the network world.

　　Let me cite a few examples drawing on what we and IBM have learned from helping thousands of customers in the last year come to the Net. New competitors can come out of nowhere, overnight, and not just from within your industry. One of the most contentious, fast moving, and bare knocle battles waged today is, believe it or not, in book selling. The leader in this online race is "amazon.com". If you have not heard of them, do not feel bad. Three years ago, nobody heard of them. They did not exist. Their customers do not aware they exist physically, and they do not care. Amazon.com exists only in cyberspace. But with 2.5 million titles, it is nearly 15 times larger than the world's largest physical bookstore. It is open 24 hours a day, every day of the year. And they recently serve their one million of customer in Japan, one of 160 countries in which amazon ships books. Until recently they had the market to themselves. Now the traditional book sellers like Barns&Noble in the US, and medium firms like Burtlesman in Europe are jumping in. Can virtual companies like "amazon.com" battle against and beat these entrenched brands? Stay tuned. We do not know yet. The same kind of transformation is happening in retail banking, in car sales, in music entertainment, in insurance. And it is not just limited to the commercial world. Public sector institutions are being buffeted by the same powerful forces. In higher education, there is a university in Canada, Atherbasca University, that delivers 100 percent of its courses by what is called distant learning. No students on campus, no campus. All instruction is delivered online. And they have captured nearly 30 percent of all MBA students in Canada. Governments are using networks to transform every thing, from the way they buy goods and services, to the delivery of services to citizens. Singapore is putting 10 thousand suppliers online, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and by the way is compared with the advantage in Asia. When the government of Verlancia in southern France, starts wiring entire villages, allowing citizens to conduct online transactions with local businesses, schedule a doctor's appointment, get information from their kids' school -- you know something interesting is starting to happen. And believe me in America, when in certain stage you can register your car on the Internet and not have to go a way in line. I can assure you something important is happening. Trust me on this one. Now all of us must realize this is not a spectator's sport, when I was just sitting here watching "amazon.com". Every institution and every entity must grab with this issue at the highest level as management. S&Base, Cacherdeck is one of the largest department stores in Europe. But they are making their first foreway into online sales. That is not an easy decision for an enterprise with huge investments and retail space, not to mention their economic model, their coop culture, rooted and traditional retail sales. Who made the decision for Cacherdeck to jump into online sales? I can assure you it was not their Web master. Increasingly, CEOs of companies, university presidents, government officials are stepping up to these issues. They are testing pilot sites, they are setting strategy, and they are answering questions like "How will this network world affect my organization?" "How are we threatened?" but more importantly, "How can I leverage this new medium for competitive advantage?" The toughest, most jocular decisions that need to be made are which browser or which server their core management and policy issues. This only escalates all these issues, only escalates as the network world marches on.

　　We have already talked about the first milestone that is the Net connecting, say a billion people to perhaps a million E-businesses. The next milestone is what we and IBM call pervasive computing. Fifty years ago where did you find electric motors? Big factories, power plants, and they were big and expensive. Today you might find a hundred electric motors in the typical home - they are in the appliances, heating, ventilation systems, CD player, the VCR, and, if you are so fortunate, the electric tooth-brush. We do not buy electric motors any more. They come inside of all the things we use and do every day. The same thing is going to happen with computing devices. Chips are getting so small and so inexpensive, (that) they are being embedded in every thing - cars, appliances, tools, doorknobs, clothes. Most significantly all of these tiny intelligent devices will be interwoven in the fabric of the computing and communications network. And what will this mean for consumers and enterprises? A quick example, think about driving down the autobahn.Your intelligent car develops an engine problem. But instead of flashing you a warning light, it sends a message directly to the manufacturer over a wireless connection to the Net. The manufacturer systems diagnose the problem, and they transmit a fix back to the electronic complex in your car. In fact, that electronic fix is transmitted to all models of that car anywhere in the world without having to notify the owners. And that is good for the driver, so also better for the car maker. Instant performance information captured and sent immediately into product development and manufacturing, continuous feedback loop, continuous improvement, resulting in better cars, good for the consumer and competitive advantage for the businesses to get there first. How can any company with tens of millions of vending machines scattered all around the world know at any point what is selling, what is not selling, how much of an item is left, or when to send a rood driver to empty the coin box. A little chip in each machine could check and report on all of those items with ease, and even better. Why could not that machine include a thermal stack that told it, it is freezing today, drop the price by 10 pfennigs. It is 35 degrees, raise the price by 15 pfennigs. Soon we will see this hyper standard network world made up of a trillion interconnected intersecting devices. And this will intersect with the data capability I spoke of early -- pervasive computing meets deep computing. Companies and institutions will amass more data, more information than ever in history. And for the first time they will be able to do something productive with the turn raw data into knowledge and move that knowledge to the right people instantaneously. Personally I believe that future leadership companies and by the way future leadership institutions of all kinds will be those who know how to compete and win on the basis of knowledge -- learning, adapting and improving the vital asset we know as information.

　　Now I have covered a lot of ground here very quickly. I want to show you a brief video that illustrates some of these ideas that I have talked about.

　　(VIDEO)

　　The brilliant computer technology, which has enabled this biggest explosion in the last 20 years, is that they are getting increasingly more powerful without getting more expensive.

　　Make a chip run over one giga-hertz was someone like breaking the sound barrier on land. We really found that we can work at it. There is anything that you cannot build. And we have solved the problem and now we are  continue to increase frequency for the next 10 years.

　　Our ability to manipulate information and our ability to do video and multimedia are critically dependent upon having larger and larger storage devices. Recently we demonstrate a laboratory world recogdencive 11.6 billion bits per square inch for a hard disk drive. We want to be having a continued advance at storage capabilities when the physical limitations prevent us from extending current devices. That is why we are investigating using hologramed information, even manipulating individual items.

　　In the information age, up till now, the oriental culture has a disadvantage, because of the difficulty in input. To do Chinese speech recognition, we need to improve recognition algorithm. Also we need fast computers. Now both conditions are there.

　　I am painfully slow in typing.

　　It takes so long to master the skill of typing Chinese.

　　“我?guī)�來我公司的最新產(chǎn)品。請在明天上午召開聯(lián)席會議 - ‘It is just fast!' - 討論銷售合作的問題。”

　　Only in the last few years have computers become powerful enough to do on-the-fly translation of languages.

　　You will be able to go into the World Wide Web, go to any site, anywhere in the world, and whatever language that particular site is written, and quickly browse and understand that information in your native language. It is about the same amount of time it takes for you to receive the Web page over the network. We intersect in the server. We do the translation, and we present the new page back to you.

　　International travel is growing at between 7 and 10 percent a year. And we see the pressure is on world control authorities, and the hastle on passengers continue into grow. We try to create fast ...so it appears very much like an Automatic Teller Machine. A traveler we take a credit card and put it in the kiosk, place their hand on the biometric reader, and those two things in a real time are compared with information that has been stored in a database when they enroll, and then this is what is in it.

　　How can I make computers more fun to use, easier to use, more like interacting with humans? We have given the computer the ability to see us, and sense where we are. And now we are trying to give it ability to understand what we are trying to say. In fact, all I need to do is to talk to it and move my hands. So for example, now I am moving this object around, just by moving my hand. "Leave it there." The computer hears me and does what I ask.

　　Some of the really hard problems are their power, a lot of computing power. That is the deep computing.

　　What we have learned in Deep Blue is that not only you need fast computers, deep computing power, but you need to capture human experts knowledge, and express that in terms of algorithms.

　　The more power you have, the smarter things you can do. And that is what is starting to happen now because the computers have enough processing power to solve some really interesting and difficult problems.

　　With such a computer you can actually simulate the physical process of what happened in the physical world.

　　I think we will tell our kids 10 years ... now, "You may not believe it, but computers used to be things that set of big boxes on top of desks. And look at ...

　　As things get smaller, faster and smarter, we are about to forget about the computer inside devices, focus on the function of the device.

　　Computers will be everywhere, performing everyday tasks for people.

　　We will not think them as computers any more.

　　Now I started out this evening saying I hope to represent the voice of the customer. And as we project the benefit of this network world, the hundreds of millions of people may be even a billion. It is clear that the Information Technology industry has a lot of work to do. We have got to make this technology easier to use, and more natural. And that video you saw some of the things we and others are doing and working on ease of use today. We have got our rich agreement on standards, standards for communications, for security, for software development. And I am asking you as customers to keep the heat on this industry. The demand that we deliver open standards, everybody's software running on everybody's hardware over everybody's network.

　　There is another set of issues that extend beyond the Information Technology industry - there are public policy issues. Some have been around for ever, like privacy. Some we recognize as old issues in new dimensions, like security and taxation in the global market place of the Internet. Resolving these issues is going to require a new level of international cooperation. And I think the nations of the European Union have set a real leadership example, in preparing for the common currency, perhaps the most important change since European integration and the treaty of your own. IBM has been pleased, being involved in helping a number of you prepare for this, which will fundamentally alter the economic landscape and make it easier for all our companies to grow in Europe. But because the nature of the network world is just global - it has to be global, agreements to these critical policy issues are going to take this issue of cooperation to a new level. We are going to have to have a global public policy.

　　First, people must have inexpensive access to the telecommunication services they need to participate, meaning governments have to encourage competition, and end monopoly structures. And the news from Europe is very encouraging recently here. It is also clear that the discriminatory tax policies can stifle this very nascent, early forming economic engine. We have to insure that electronic business is taxed the same way as the physical business world, no more, no less. And the OECD has taken on this work, and we hardly support their efforts. We also support the move to keep the Internet a tariff free zone. This will be a big fight, but that is one we have to win together.

　　Next, security. The domains of customers for strong encryption, and governments legitimate concerns about their ability to provide public safety and enforced laws do not have to be neutrally exclusive. IBM is working with the US government, with the European Union, and governments around the world to support an unrestricted market for encryption products that can inter-operate globally. We are not anywhere near for along on this we need to be, but I am confident we will get there. We have to get there, there is too much of stake.

　　Finally, privacy. How can we continue to strike the balance, the right balance between respect for the individuals privacy and the benefits on the other hand of information flow in a connected world. The solution here must start with the private sector, not government. And a reinformation of a few proven principles by all businesses that consumers get fare notice about information that is used, that is theirs, and the opportunity control, and confirm its use. And a number of companies are moving in this direction. IBM has recently adopted a global privacy policy for managing information online and it is posted on all of our web sites around the world. With global agreement and cooperation and understanding, the Information Technology industry, government and our customers will go forward. I believe and insure that this global market place grows boldly, safely, and delivers on a real promise. That is important to every one.

　　As we look ahead to the next millennium, I do not think there is any question any longer about the profound power of this technology. In an incredibly short span of time, it is developed to the point where it can, we can talk about it in the same context as any of the other great technologies had transformed our world. We are watching, we are participating in the emergence of something much bigger than the new computing model, much different than just a new channel for human interaction. Information Technology, and specifically network technology, represents the most powerful tool we have ever had for change. It is a new engine for economic growth, a new medium that will redefine the nature of relationships among governments and institutions and businesses of all kinds, and the people they serve now, and they might serve tomorrow. This powerful tool is here for all of us today. Each of us will have to decide how will it exploited, and how soon. But in any case, the nations, the government agencies, the public sector and commercial institutions, that do theirs most effectively will create enormous competitive advantage into the 21 century.

　　Thank you very much, and I hope you have the most successful CeBIT ever.

　　各位晚上好！非常榮幸能夠與漢諾威市市長、Yang 先生共同出席今晚的會議，非常榮幸能與科爾總理共同度過這個美好的夜晚。我一直在盼望今晚的到來，因為很多年以前我就知道 CeBIT 對全球信息技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)有多么重要。因此在演講之前我首先要對你們邀請我參加這個重要的會議表示衷心的感謝。

　　對于今晚要說的內(nèi)容我想過很多。一方面，我是作為信息技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)界的代表出席這次比其它任何技術(shù)展覽會的規(guī)模都大的會議的。我們的工業(yè)是一個對很多事情都很拿手 的工業(yè)，尤其善于慶祝其自己的創(chuàng)造發(fā)明。另一方面，和你們大多數(shù)人一樣，我的絕大部分職業(yè)生涯也是作為這個產(chǎn)業(yè)的消費者渡過的。因此，我知道一通承諾之后必將是黎明眩目的陽光。消費者常常被撇在一邊，琢磨著發(fā)生了什么事，或者象我們一個非常重要的德國客戶的首腦所說的那樣，“你們的產(chǎn)業(yè)好象對結(jié)婚典禮非常在行，但對婚姻卻不太懂。”因此，雖然今晚我要談?wù)勑畔⒓夹g(shù)的力量和潛力，但是我希望我能夠象五年前剛到 IBM 時一樣，站在消費者的立場上表達(dá)我的觀點。

　　純技術(shù)主宰這次展覽會的原因是很簡單的，因為現(xiàn)在的純技術(shù)是可以被接受的，是令人驚奇的，而且它已經(jīng)滲透到了我們生活的各個方面�，F(xiàn)在全世界每年銷售的 PC 數(shù)量比電視機和汽車多。今天典型的豪華汽車中有 20 到 30 個微處理器，比那個把第一批宇航員送上月球的登月飛船的計算能力還強。去年全球發(fā)送的電子郵件數(shù)量比傳統(tǒng)的紙郵件數(shù)量多五倍，達(dá)到 27000 億封。我的信箱容量就總是不夠用。我們還可以從另外一個角度看看現(xiàn)在都發(fā)生了些什么事。七十年代中期出現(xiàn)了最初的超級計算機，計算能力是大約每秒一億次，價格大約是一百萬美元。而如今大學(xué)生的書包里裝著的膝上型計算機的計算能力是那種超級計算機的兩倍，價格卻只有不到 3000 美元。數(shù)據(jù)存儲技術(shù)的發(fā)展趨勢更是令人瞠目。八十年代初期，一個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)單位的計算機存儲能力，即 1MB，或者說 1 百萬字節(jié)，售價是 100 美元，而現(xiàn)在卻只要 10 美分，兩年內(nèi)還將降到 2 美分。這種結(jié)果是在技術(shù)不斷進(jìn)步的推動下產(chǎn)生的，我們可以把信息存儲到越來越小的空間。如果把這種技術(shù)用到美國國會圖書館的 1700 百萬冊存書上，其書架長度將由 800 公里變成不到 40 米。這種進(jìn)步將繼續(xù)下去，并且會加速微處理器、存儲設(shè)備、通信、內(nèi)存以及所有其它正在推動信息產(chǎn)業(yè)前進(jìn)的“發(fā)動機”式的產(chǎn)品的發(fā)展，或者會繼續(xù)創(chuàng)造出更快、更小、更便宜的產(chǎn)品。過去 30 年的情況就是如此。然而當(dāng)我們今天站在這里，出席 CeBIT 的開幕式的時候，我們面對的是一場業(yè)界非常重要的變化和革命。在很多方面，信息產(chǎn)業(yè)將成為最重要的產(chǎn)業(yè)。這是因為信息技術(shù)已經(jīng)變得如此強大、如此普遍，以致于未來它對人們、政府和各個機構(gòu)的影響將使目前發(fā)生的事相形見絀。

　　我認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在有兩個最重要的趨勢。第一個我們稱之為深入計算 (deep computing)。這個術(shù)語是在我們會下國際象棋的超級計算機“深藍(lán)” (Deep Blue) 的啟發(fā)下得到的。我相信很多人都知道去年它與國際象棋特級大師卡斯帕羅夫進(jìn)行過對抗賽。“深藍(lán)”是一臺令人吃驚的機器，它具備每秒 2 億步的計算能力。速度雖然是必要的，但是僅有速度是不夠的。不管怎么說，“深藍(lán)”的前身的計算速度是相當(dāng)快的，但兩年前它還是敗給了卡斯帕羅夫。第二次比賽的不同之處在于，人類的國際象棋知識、成千上萬步的步法、行棋順序及結(jié)果都被提煉為數(shù)學(xué)算法。正是這些東西使得“深藍(lán)”能夠模仿人類的思想行為，從上百萬可能的布局中選出其中最好的一種，而且干得相當(dāng)不錯。“深藍(lán)”實際上是所有正在浮現(xiàn)的將復(fù)雜的分析軟件與超高速處理能力結(jié)合在一起的計算機系統(tǒng)的象征。如今我們正把這些系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用到比國際象棋更重要的挑戰(zhàn)上。我來說說兩個重要的應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域吧。首先是計算機仿真。

　　仿真是一種用數(shù)字的東西代替實際的東西的技術(shù)，在強大的計算機系統(tǒng)中重建現(xiàn)實世界。在農(nóng)業(yè)育種工業(yè)，如果我們能模仿化學(xué)元素之間的相互作用，用計算機而不是用試管和培養(yǎng)皿做試驗，我們將可以幾年幾年的縮短農(nóng)業(yè)新品種的發(fā)現(xiàn)和測試時間。梅塞德斯、寶馬、菲亞特、沃爾沃......現(xiàn)在都在計算機上設(shè)計汽車，不再需要實際制做模型。航空工業(yè)也是這些技術(shù)的積極倡導(dǎo)者，波音公司破天荒地將 777 飛機的設(shè)計完全在計算機上完成。這是一個非常大膽的舉動。甚至是一些波音的工程師都感到恐慌。我也感到恐慌，因為在我加入 IBM 三個月后去拜訪我的好朋友波音公司 CEO Frank 時，F(xiàn)rank 對我說：“既然這種新飛機是在你們的計算機上建造的，那么也許你應(yīng)該參加它的首次試飛。”我回答說：“那天是我妻子的生日。”他說：“可是我還沒告訴你試飛的日期呢。膽小鬼！”計算機模擬能夠節(jié)省時間、節(jié)省費用、能使用戶更具競爭力，它還能做更多的事。最近美國能源部要求 IBM 建造一臺巨型超級計算機用以模擬核武器，這樣他們就再也不用進(jìn)行核爆炸試驗了。

　　第二種深入計算我們稱之為數(shù)據(jù)分析處理 -- 有些人稱之為商業(yè)情報處理，即從大量信息中提煉出有用情報，并分析出以前得不到或看不見的各種關(guān)系和發(fā)展趨勢。銀行在分析消費模式和其它統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，以弄清哪些客戶長期的收益狀況較好。Health-care 企業(yè)在分析成百萬的病例以從中發(fā)現(xiàn)隱藏的疾病跡象。這些工具還有助于削減 health-care 產(chǎn)業(yè)中驚人的保險欺騙損失，僅在美國這個損失就高達(dá)上千億美元。保險公司現(xiàn)在能夠發(fā)現(xiàn)任何欺詐行為。有一家美國公司僅在這種技術(shù)上投資 40 萬美元就減少了 3800 萬美元的損失。有一次他們發(fā)現(xiàn)一個醫(yī)生每周都要送來一份醫(yī)療檢查帳單，而其中的一些項目一生也只會做一次或兩次。有時發(fā)現(xiàn)的一些情況和關(guān)系著實令人難以理解。有一家零售連鎖店發(fā)現(xiàn)了如下的相關(guān)聯(lián)系：不管出于什么原因，新爸爸們總是在一次購物中同時購買一次性嬰兒尿片和啤酒。這一點引發(fā)了很多很多很有思想的想法，例如他們從不同時對尿片和啤酒打折。我們相信深入計算是一個將對商業(yè)和社會產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響的趨勢。當(dāng)然把難題扔向計算機的觀念并不新鮮。它可以追溯到這種產(chǎn)業(yè)剛出現(xiàn)的時代。但是今天的不同之處是現(xiàn)在的系統(tǒng)非常強大，價格又極為公道，以致于能夠在各種商業(yè)和政府部門、各種科研機構(gòu)中廣泛應(yīng)用。

　　就象今天晚上已經(jīng)談到的，信息技術(shù)第二個重要的發(fā)展是全球網(wǎng)絡(luò)的崛起，比如 Internet，它創(chuàng)造了一個網(wǎng)上世界，也有些人稱之為網(wǎng)上經(jīng)濟(jì)。如今有 1600 萬人使用 Internet。估計這個數(shù)字很快就會升至 5 億，也許有一天還會達(dá)到 10 億。那么這些上網(wǎng)的人打算做些什么，或者說想做些什么呢？不久以前，我們這個領(lǐng)域的人認(rèn)為網(wǎng)上活動將會是信息發(fā)布 -- 新聞、天氣預(yù)報、體育比分、在線雜志（被稱作 E-zine）以及簡短的消費信息。IBM 對此持不同觀點已經(jīng)有一段時間了。我們認(rèn)為網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界的真正潛力在于引導(dǎo)所有不同團(tuán)體之間的不同種類的交易，網(wǎng)上現(xiàn)在正在發(fā)生的情況似乎就是如此�？鐨W洲的 Internet 上的銷售額去年是 10 億美元，到 2001 年將達(dá)到 300 億美元。一項研究表明，世界范圍內(nèi)的 Internet 商業(yè)活動僅在未來 6 個月里就將翻一番。其中絕大多數(shù)是商業(yè)團(tuán)體之間的交易。我們認(rèn)為本世紀(jì)末 Internet 商業(yè)的全部市場將會達(dá)到 2000 億美元。這還只是保守的估計。我們說的不僅僅是買和賣的問題。大約一年以前，IBM 創(chuàng)造了一個術(shù)語 E-business （電子商務(wù)）描述所有人們得以從網(wǎng)上獲取價值的方式。企業(yè)雇員之間的交流將驗證如何開發(fā)產(chǎn)品、如何共享觀念、如何形成小組、如何完成工作。企業(yè)與其它供應(yīng)商、分銷商、零售商之間的交流將加快資金循環(huán)次數(shù)、速度和效率。另外政府與市民、教育者和學(xué)生、醫(yī)務(wù)提供者和病人之間的交流和交互作用也非常重要。這種情況令人非常激動。最重要的變化和挑戰(zhàn)并不是技術(shù)方面。實際上，連接到 Internet 上相對來說很簡單。大的挑戰(zhàn)來自于這個世界運行方式的基本變革。網(wǎng)絡(luò)是偉大的平均主義者。網(wǎng)絡(luò)消解了所有進(jìn)入那些受壓制的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè) -- 比如實際的商店和分店 -- 的障礙。網(wǎng)絡(luò)消解了各個企業(yè)、各個國家、各個大陸和時區(qū)內(nèi)部以及它們之間的界限�？梢院敛豢鋸埖恼f，網(wǎng)絡(luò)正在迅速成為一個前所未有的最大、最為活躍、從不平靜和從不休息的業(yè)務(wù)和思想的市場。自然這也將帶來一些意義深遠(yuǎn)的應(yīng)用。一件值得注意的事兒是，這些障礙都是歷史悠久的、早有準(zhǔn)備的部門，它們統(tǒng)治著信息世界運轉(zhuǎn)的方式 -- 買賣的方式、分銷的方式、教育的方式以及我們互相交往的方式。我得說幾乎傳統(tǒng)觀念中的每一方面都在受到網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界的挑戰(zhàn)。

　　下面讓我舉幾個例子，幾個過去一年中我們 IBM 在幫助成千上萬的消費者走上網(wǎng)絡(luò)時得到的例子。新的競爭者將會無時無刻無所不在，而不僅僅是來自你自己的產(chǎn)業(yè)界。今天爭吵得最利害、行動最為迅速的競爭 -- 信不信由你 -- 是在書籍銷售領(lǐng)域。這場競賽現(xiàn)在的領(lǐng)先者是 amazon.com。如果你還沒聽說過它，不要緊。三年前沒有人聽說過它們，那時候它們還不存在。它們的顧客并未意識到它們在實際上的存在，它們也不在乎這些。amazon.com 僅僅在網(wǎng)上存在。但是它擁有 250 萬種圖書，幾乎比世界上最大的傳統(tǒng)書店大 15 倍。它每天 24 小時、全年每天都營業(yè)。不久前，它們在日本接待了它的第 100 萬名顧客，日本只是 amazon 銷售書籍的 160 個國家中的一個。現(xiàn)在傳統(tǒng)的書籍銷售商如美國的......媒體高速如歐洲的......也跳進(jìn)了這個市場。象 amazon.com 這樣的虛擬公司能否擊敗這些根深蒂固老牌號？等著瞧吧，我們也不知道。類似的變革同時還發(fā)生在零售銀行業(yè)、汽車銷售、音樂娛樂、保險業(yè)中，而且還不僅僅限于商業(yè)領(lǐng)域。公眾機構(gòu)也遭受了同一種強大力量的沖擊。在高等教育領(lǐng)域，加拿大有一所......大學(xué)完全通過所謂的遠(yuǎn)程教育傳授它的課程。校園中沒有學(xué)生，也沒有校園。所有的指導(dǎo)都是在線傳送的。幾乎加拿大全部 MBA 學(xué)生中的 30％都出自這所大學(xué)。政府正在利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)改變著所有的一切，從購買貨物和服務(wù)的方式到向市民提供服務(wù)的方式都在改變。新加坡正在將 1 萬個供應(yīng)商放到網(wǎng)上，降低了成本并且提高了效率，另外還因此在亞洲地區(qū)贏得了有勢。當(dāng)法國南部的......政府將整個村子連接起來，使得市民可以在線的同本地商業(yè)企業(yè)進(jìn)行交易、預(yù)約醫(yī)生、從他們的孩子就讀的學(xué)校獲取信息 -- 你們可以看得出，一些有趣的事情正在發(fā)生。請相信我，發(fā)展到一定程度后，在美國你們將能夠在 Internet 上注冊汽車而不必排隊等候。我向你們保證，一些重要的事情正在發(fā)生。在這一點上請相信我。當(dāng)我坐在這兒瀏覽 amazon.com 時，我們大家或許都已意識到這決不是觀眾在看體育比賽。每一家機構(gòu)和實體都應(yīng)該象抓企業(yè)管理的一樣抓住這個問題。......是歐洲最大的百貨公司之一。它們是第一次走向網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售。這不是一個輕松的決定，這家企業(yè)已經(jīng)有巨大的投資規(guī)模和零售空間，更不要說它的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式、企業(yè)文化和它傳統(tǒng)的零售業(yè)務(wù)了。是誰作出在線銷售的決定的呢？我相信決不是它們的網(wǎng)絡(luò)主管。逐漸地，公司的 CEO 們，大學(xué)校長們，政府官員們都在走近這個問題。他們測試試驗網(wǎng)站，制定戰(zhàn)略，而且對諸如“這個網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界會對我們的組織產(chǎn)生何種影響？”“我們會受到何種威脅？”以及更重要的“我們?nèi)绾卫�用這種新的媒體獲得競爭優(yōu)勢？”等問題做出回答。最為為難的、最滑稽的是要決定采用何種瀏覽器或服務(wù)器用于核心管理和政策問題。這只會在網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界前進(jìn)的道路上加劇這些問題。我們談到第一個里程碑是 Internet 的連接，比方說將 10 億人連接到 100 萬個電子商務(wù)企業(yè)上。下一個里程碑是我們 IBM 所說的普遍計算 (pervasive computing)。五十年前，你在哪兒能見到電機？只能在工廠、電廠，它們非常龐大而且很貴。現(xiàn)在你在家里便可以看到上百個電機，各種電器設(shè)備，加熱裝置、通風(fēng)系統(tǒng)、CD 播放機、錄像機，如果你足夠幸運的話，你還可能用到電動牙刷。今天我們不再直接購買電機了。它們跟隨日常用品來到我們的生活中。類似的事情也將要在計算設(shè)備中發(fā)生。芯片越來越小，越來越便宜，能夠被嵌入到各種產(chǎn)品中 -- 汽車、器械、工具、門把手、衣服。其中最為引人注目的是將小型智能設(shè)備交織進(jìn)計算和通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)的結(jié)構(gòu)中。那么這對消費者和企業(yè)來說將意味著什么呢？舉個例子吧。想象一下你正在駕駛一輛新型汽車。當(dāng)這輛智能汽車發(fā)生了一起引擎故障時，它不是向你閃爍警示燈，而是通過無線 Internet 連接直接向制造商發(fā)送信息。制造商的系統(tǒng)診斷出問題，然后向汽車的電子系統(tǒng)發(fā)回修理信息。實際上這個電子修理信息將在不通告其擁有者的情況下發(fā)向世界上所有這種型號的汽車。這對駕駛?cè)藛T和制造商都是有好處的。性能信息隨時都可以得到，并被立即發(fā)送給產(chǎn)品開發(fā)商和制造商，這樣經(jīng)過不斷的反饋，不斷的改進(jìn)，就可以制造出更好的汽車，從而有益于消費者，使企業(yè)擁有領(lǐng)先的競爭優(yōu)勢。一家擁有遍布全世界上千萬自動售貨機的公司如何能夠知道各個售貨機中什么賣掉了，什么沒賣掉，還剩多少，或者什么時候該派人去把售貨機里的錢取出來。每臺機器中安裝一個很小的芯片就可以很方便地檢查并報告所有這些信息，甚至可能做得更好。為什么不能在這些機器里裝一個溫度計呢？溫度計會告訴售貨機說，“今天很冷，價格下調(diào) 10 分尼。”“已經(jīng) 35 度了，提高價格 15 分尼。”很快我們就會看到這種由上萬億的互相交叉連接著的設(shè)備構(gòu)成的網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界。這和我剛才講到的數(shù)據(jù)能力是相互交叉的，也就是說，普遍計算和深入計算是相交叉的。各種企業(yè)和各種機構(gòu)將可以比以前聚集更多的數(shù)據(jù)、更多的信息。而且它們將第一次能夠立即把原始數(shù)據(jù)變成知識，并立即把這種知識傳送給相關(guān)的人。我個人認(rèn)為，未來社會領(lǐng)先的企業(yè)和領(lǐng)先的機構(gòu)將是那些懂得如何在知識的基礎(chǔ)上開展競爭的企業(yè)和機構(gòu)，他們將懂得學(xué)習(xí)、適應(yīng)和改進(jìn)這種我們稱為信息的生死攸關(guān)的資產(chǎn)。

　　（我在這么短的時間里談到了這么多東西�，F(xiàn)在我想給你們放一段錄像，這里面闡述了一些我剛剛談到的思想。）

　　今天晚上我曾說過，我希望表達(dá)的是消費者的意見。在我們描繪網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界將帶來的好處的時候，我們的網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界中的幾千萬用戶可能已經(jīng)變成了十億。顯然信息技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)中還有很多工作需要做。我們必須讓這種技術(shù)使用起來更容易、更自然。在錄象上大家看到了今天我們和其他一些人為使信息技術(shù)易于使用而正在做的一些事情。在工業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)方面我們已經(jīng)達(dá)成了很多協(xié)議，關(guān)于通信、安全和軟件開發(fā)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。因此我請求你們這些消費者對這個產(chǎn)業(yè)保持熱情。我們正不斷的推出開放的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，使任何人的軟件都可以在任何人的硬件平臺上運行，在任何人的網(wǎng)絡(luò)上運行。信息工業(yè)還面臨著一系列其它的問題 -- 公眾政策問題。這方面有一些問題是永遠(yuǎn)存在的，比如說隱私權(quán)。有一些是新領(lǐng)域中的老問題，比如說 Internet 全球市場的安全和稅收的問題。解決這些問題要求國際合作達(dá)到一個新的層次。我認(rèn)為歐盟的各個國家成為了真正的先驅(qū)者，你們正在為統(tǒng)一貨幣而做準(zhǔn)備，這有可能是歐洲統(tǒng)一進(jìn)程中簽署條約以來最重要的變化。IBM 感到非常榮幸被接納來幫助一些歐盟成員準(zhǔn)備此事，這將從根本上改變歐盟的經(jīng)濟(jì)格局并使得我們這些公司更易于在歐洲發(fā)展。但是由于網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界的本性就是全球性的 -- 它只能是全球性的，在這些重要的政策問題上達(dá)成協(xié)議將使得在這一問題上的合作達(dá)到一個新的水平。我們將不得不建立一個全球性的公共政策。首先人們必須能夠以低廉的價格接入的他們必須參與的通信服務(wù)，也就是說政府必須鼓勵競爭，從而終結(jié)壟斷結(jié)構(gòu)。而最近從歐洲傳來的新聞是很激動人心的。稅收政策的差異也可能壓制這個新生的經(jīng)濟(jì)引擎，這一點也是顯而易見的。我們必須確保電子商務(wù)的稅收水平與自然貿(mào)易的稅收水平相同，不能多也不能少。OECD 正在作這方面的工作，但我們不大支持他們的努力。我們還支持保持 Internet 為一個無關(guān)稅的自由區(qū)域。這將是一場激烈的斗爭，但也是我們必須一同贏得勝利的斗爭。其次是安全性。用戶對強有力的加密技術(shù)的渴望、政府立法領(lǐng)域?qū)λ麄儽ＷC公共安全和提供法律的能力的關(guān)注是可以走到一起來的。IBM 正和美國政府、歐洲聯(lián)盟以及全球的其他政府合作，來支持一個不加限制的可以實現(xiàn)全球互操作的加密產(chǎn)品市場。雖然為了做到這一點我們還有很長的路要走，但對此我充滿了信心。而且我們必須做到這一點，因為這里面已經(jīng)投入了太多的賭注。最后是隱私權(quán)的問題。我們怎么能繼續(xù)破壞這種平衡呢？這種平衡使得個人隱私權(quán)和信息在廣泛聯(lián)系世界中流動帶來的利益達(dá)成了妥協(xié)。這里的解決方案必須由私營部門發(fā)起，而不是政府。這里有幾條被所有的業(yè)務(wù)都證實了的原則，消費者們僅僅對對他們有用的、屬于他們的和有助于把握機會的信息給予關(guān)注，并強化它們的應(yīng)用。大量的公司在向這個方向轉(zhuǎn)移。IBM 最近采納了一項在線管理信息的全球隱私權(quán)政策，并且把它張貼到了我們在世界上的所有站點上。有了全球協(xié)議、合作以及諒解，信息技術(shù)工業(yè)、政府和我們的客戶們就可以勇往直前。我認(rèn)為并且確信這個全球性的市場將顯著的、安全的成長，并實現(xiàn)他的承諾。這對于每一個人都是非常重要的。當(dāng)我們展望下一個千年的時候，對這項技術(shù)擁有的強大能量，我認(rèn)為不再會有任何疑問。在令人難以置信的短暫時間里，信息工業(yè)發(fā)展到了這樣的一個程度，我們可以談?wù)摰膬?nèi)容已經(jīng)能夠和那些曾經(jīng)改變了我們的世界的偉大技術(shù)相媲美。我們正看到的、我們正在分享的遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不只是一個新的競賽模式，也不僅是人們相互作用的新渠道。信息技術(shù)，特別是網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)，代表的是我們從未擁有過的可以改變世界的最強大的工具。它是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的新的動力，它是一個新的媒介，是可以重新定義所有政府、組織和企業(yè)之間關(guān)系的本性的媒介，是可以重新定義正在接受它的服務(wù)的人們和將來要接受它的服務(wù)的人們之間的關(guān)系的媒介。這個強大的工具是賜予我們大家的。我們中的每一個人都必須決定怎樣去開發(fā)它，或在什么時候開發(fā)它。但無論如何，國家、政府、公共部門和商業(yè)組織都可以通過最有效的工作建立巨大的競爭優(yōu)勢，并將它帶入 21 世紀(jì)。

　　非常感謝你們，祝愿你們的 CeBIT 成為歷史上最成功的一次 CeBIT 。